April – June Diary

15/06

My last 2 months of trading have been absolutely horrendous. If I were to rate my performance out of 10 I would have given it a -10/10 however with my latest trade I can now give it a 1/10.

I had a few in and out trades the but the majority of my performance from March – June can be summed up in the following trades.

  • Bought Afterpay at $8.50 and subsequently sold it at $9.20 as I thought the stock was going to drop further and I was looking to just day trade. I curse myself everyday for selling.
  • Bought BBUS at $5.50 after selling it at $5.20 right after Jerome Powell (Money printer go brrrr) announced his MULTI TRILLION DOLLAR STIMULUS PACKAGE. As you might know ASX.BBUS is a leveraged short fund against the S&P. And as you may know the S&P has absolutely gone gangbusters in the last 2 months rocketing upwards and causing me some serious hurt
  • Bought RIOT Blockchain , RIOT: NASDAQ at $1.80 and subsequently sold at $3.20. With another re-entry at $2.50 last Friday. This play is all about the bitcoin price speculation after halving. I am still long this position, not so much due to the company but due to the speculation of the stock if Bitcoin rallies hard (which I am expecting to happen).

I am using this post more as an update and a lessons learnt . So here are my lessons learnt:

  • Know what you want to pay for a stock and what is a good bargain : The market is always forward looking. If you have done your research, have come up with an intrinsic value, use it. Due to COVID however, nobody knows how quick the recovery is going to be (my thoughts are it will definitely not be a V shaped recovery). I had done the work on APT and previously valued it at $17, prior to COVID. If you were to remove 2 years of growth, $8 is still great value. However it is also hard to forecast spending over the next years and growth. Hindsight is 20/20 for this.
  • The market is not the economy. As we all know this current market is just bonkers, absolutely crazy. Nothing makes sense anymore. Hertz declares bankruptcy then ralliest 300%. Unemployment is at an all time high and COVID cases are still increasing, yet the market has priced in a V Share recovery.
  • Don’t be so stubborn on your mindset, on what you think the market should be doing (see point above) and be ready to change your opinion quickly and be flexible.
  • Don’t fight the fed: If the fed ever steps in with a stimulus package, get ready to change your positions and look to go long.

My moves moving forward and my thoughts:

Here are my thoughts:

  1. The Market has rebounded too fast too quickly. COVID cases are rising, there’s no vaccine (although suspiciously there’s always “news” that a vaccine is out causing the market to rally hard). Unemployment will be here for sometime, and the economy has hit a recession. I am dependent on past history for this to forecast a slow down trend / flat performance in the market.
  2. Long Riot and Bitcoin. RIOT Blockchain isn’t a great company, isn’t special, doesn’t have a competitive advantage. But it offers easy access for those Robinhood retail traders to access once they hear of a bitcoin price increase.
  3. I am still waiting for an entry position for AD8, NAN, APT (probably will never drop so low ever again). But one can hope.

Good luck out there and DYOR. This post is for entertainment / education purposes only and should not be used as investment advice.

Signing out,

A pleb stock market investor

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